Open Economy Macroeconomic Model Research Articles

Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers

This paper offers a solution to the international co-movement puzzle found in open-economy macroeconomic models. We develop a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model describing three endogenous channels that capture spillovers from the world to a commodity exporter: a world commodity price channel, a domestic commodity supply channel, and a financial channel. We estimate our model with Bayesian methods on two commodity-exporting SOEs, namely Canada and South Africa. In addition to explaining international business cycle synchronization, the new model attributes an important fraction of business cycle fluctuations to foreign shocks in the SOEs.

Inequality and Exchange Rate Movements in an Open-Economy Macroeconomic Model

ABSTRACT This article presents a complete macroeconomic (SFC) model to study income and wealth distribution in an open economy. We argue that exchange rates and the stock of foreign debt play a major role in shaping inequality across and within countries. Using the ‘relative income hypothesis’, we show that debt-financed consumption of low-income households can affect both total income and the disposable income of high-income households in the medium run. In addition, while higher inequality is detrimental to the domestic economy, it can benefit trading partners.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in a Two-State Open Economy

Monetary policy and financial sustainability are linked. However, the role of monetary policy and its implementation have come under particular scrutiny after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, where one of the main challenges was financial sustainability. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by improving our understanding of the influence of monetary policy on financial sustainability for a monetary union. To that end, we develop a two-state open economy macroeconomic model, in which the two state economies have the same monetary policy but maintain their fiscal independence. Examples include two countries in the eurozone, two states in the United States, core and periphery countries, etc. The linkages between these two state economies are inter-state trade in goods and inter-state borrowing in bonds. We apply the calibrated model and conduct economic experiments under alternative monetary policy regimes. The model simulation shows that monetary policy is incorrect if inflation differentials persist in a monetary union, and that incorrect monetary policy leads to real interest rates that are too low for high inflation countries, which become indebted after excessive borrowing. This study sheds light on how monetary policy should be implemented if inflation differs in countries within a monetary union. Our findings draw policy implications for those “two-state” economies considering alternative macroeconomic policy regimes to achieve financial sustainability and regional economic integration.

Growth Shocks under Alternative Macro Regimes in a Developing Economy

A key challenge facing most developing economies today is how to simultaneously maintain monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and financial integration, subject to the constraints imposed by the impossible trinity. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by examining and comparing alternative macroeconomic policy choices for a developing economy with growth shocks. To that end, we introduce a three-sector “almost small” open economy macroeconomic model, and calibrate this model to proxy the China in 2005 when it made the transition from being an economy that was bounded by the impossible trinity. We design two alternative macroeconomic policy regimes and apply the calibrated model to analyze both the short-run and the long-run responses to several domestic and external growth shocks, which appeared important for a developing economy like China during its economic reform period in the 2000s. The model simulation shows that most growth shocks cause an expansion in the real GDP level. Moreover, greater flexibility in the exchange rate allows the central bank to conduct independent monetary policy, the benefit from which increases as financial capital becomes more internationally mobile. Our findings draw policy implication for those developing countries considering alternative macroeconomic policy regimes to achieve sustainable economic growth.

Corporation Tax, the Exchange Rate, and Cross-Border Firm Mobility

In this paper, we extend a new open economy macroeconomics (NOEM) model to examine the effects of a corporate tax reduction on home and foreign countries. The feature of this open economy model is that cross-border relocation of firms is allowed. We show that (i) a reduction in the home corporate tax rate induces an exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) when the degree of cross-border firm mobility is large (small) and (ii) when the degree of cross-border firm mobility is large (small), a reduction in corporate tax is beneficial (detrimental) to the domestic country but detrimental (beneficial) to the foreign country.

China's money demand in a cointegrating vector error correction model

This paper estimates open-economy macroeconomic models of the Chinese economy allowing for the structural change caused by the 1992 reforms. Unrestricted vector autoregressions, VARs, and cointegrating vector error correction models, VECMs, are estimated on quarterly data for the early reform period 1980–1992, and the late reform period, 1993–2018. Two long-run cointegrating vectors are identified, which can be interpreted as a long-run, money demand function and a long-run IS type income equation driven by export demand. The 1992 reforms involved a move to a more market oriented system and a transformation of financial institutions and this seems to be responsible for a change in the direction of effect of interest rates in both the IS and LM relationships.

Trade Wars, Currency Wars

For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there hasbeen a sharp shift towards unilateral, discretionary trade policy focused on short term macroeconomic objectives, and as a consequence, the use of trade policy has become entangled with that of monetary policy. This paper explores the consequences of this shift within a standard DSGE open economy macroeconomic model. We find that a discretionary non-cooperative approach to trade policy can significantly worsen macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the stance of monetary policy has major implications for the degree of protection in a non-cooperative equilibrium. In particular, cooperative determination of monetary policy implies an increase in both equilibrium tariffs and inflation, and a significant fall in welfare. By contrast, when the exchange rate is pegged by one country, equilibrium rates of protection are generally lower, but in this case, there are multiple asymmetric equilibria in tariff rates which benefit one country relative to another. We also explore the determination of non-cooperative tariffs in a situation where monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Trade Wars, Currency Wars

For most of the post WWII period, until recently, trade protectionism followed a downward trend, and was formulated in multilateral or bilateral agreements between countries. Recently however, there hasbeen a sharp shift towards unilateral, discretionary trade policy focused on short term macroeconomic objectives, and as a consequence, the use of trade policy has become entangled with that of monetary policy. This paper explores the consequences of this shift within a standard DSGE open economy macroeconomic model. We find that a discretionary non-cooperative approach to trade policy can significantly worsen macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the stance of monetary policy has major implications for the degree of protection in a non-cooperative equilibrium. In particular, cooperative determination of monetary policy implies an increase in both equilibrium tariffs and inflation, and a significant fall in welfare. By contrast, when the exchange rate is pegged by one country, equilibrium rates of protection are generally lower, but in this case, there are multiple asymmetric equilibria in tariff rates which benefit one country relative to another. We also explore the determination of non-cooperative tariffs in a situation where monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.) (This a (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Capital flows and the business cycle

As argued by Blanchard et al. (2015), there is a wide disconnect between the empirical evidence about the effect on output growth of global shocks to capital inflows and the theoretical predictions of standard open economy macroeconomic models. While the empirical evidence suggests that such shocks are expansionary, theory predicts that they should be contractionary. The small open economy New Keynesian model is no exception. In this paper, we build an open economy macroeconomic model that predicts that global shocks to capital inflows can indeed be expansionary. The framework consists of an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model based on a simple financial friction, and it can be expressed as a system of a few log-linear dynamic relationships. We are able to rationalize a number of puzzling facts, such as the higher output accompanied by currency appreciation that follows global shocks to capital flows, and the positive correlation between gross inflows and gross outflows.

Vertical FDI and exchange rates over the business cycle: The welfare implications of openness to FDI

It has long been observed that a country tends to receive increased net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow when its currency depreciates. We build an open-economy macroeconomic model that accounts for the positive correlation, and re-examine the welfare implications of FDI, focusing mainly on the short run. We show that short-run FDI fluctuations exacerbate utility loss over business cycles in an environment with monetary shocks, but have little impact on welfare over business cycles caused by productivity shocks. The best outcome occurs when the economy retains long-run FDI, but restricts short-run movements in the production location of firms.

Models of international fiscal spillovers

The paper explores the implications for fiscal policy spillovers that are implied by some of the more widely used open economy macroeconomic models. Starting from the basic New Keynesian open economy model, we look at how different assumptions about price adjustment, size and openness, and the relevance of the zero bound affect the predictions for fiscal spillovers. Our analysis indicates that the direction and magnitude of fiscal spillovers depends sensitively on many structural factors and the stance of monetary policy. Any argument for the use of fiscal policy must take these features into account.

Regional Relative Price Disparities and Their Driving Forces

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)I.INTRODUCTIONThis paper studies relative price level convergence by utilizing panels of major cities in Korea. While substantial research continues to evaluate price level disparities in international context, there have been relatively lack of successful empirical studies investigating the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) within a single currency area. To gain further insight for the sources of considerable and persistent price level dispersion, we employ formal statistical techniques to test whether intranational price level differentials tend to shrink over time with a special emphasis on their heterogeneous transitional behavior. Our empirical analysis explores potential explanations for why there is substantial deviation from PPP or markedly slow convergence by considering disaggregated CPI data classified according to consumption expenditure in addition to extant factors that are attributable to the PPP deviations, such as transportation costs, income, and input prices.The importance of understanding both time-series and cross-sectional properties of price dispersion measures has been underscored by researchers as well as policymakers. Since PPP has been a key building block of most open-economy macroeconomic models as the link between exchange rate and relative price levels, empirical validity of PPP is a long-standing issue. Ever since Rogoff (1996) articulated the PPP puzzle, a large number of papers have studied price level convergence with international data and potential sources of PPP deviation or slow price level convergence.1 This has also brought about interest in testing convergence in relative city price within a country to better understand difference in prices across locations, Beck, Hubrich, and Marcellino (2009), Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora (2002), Parsley and Wei (1996), and Sonora (2008), to name a few. Unlike international data, it may be reasonable to conjecture that major cities of a country share relatively similar characteristics, and thus relative price dispersion is unlikely to be substantial. However, the conclusion regarding long-run patterns of price disparities across cities is somewhat mixed, whereas PPP clearly is violated in the short run in those studies. Interestingly, some studies argue that price level convergence rates within a country are somewhat longer than those estimated with international data (Cecchetti, Mark, and Sonora, 2002).Despite the fact that the deviation from PPP is well documented in international data and even within a country, there has not been an extensive study rigorously investigating the possibility of PPP among major cities in Korea.2 This motivates us to examine the long-run behavior of relative price level dispersion with a special emphasis on heterogeneous transition dynamics of individual prices. In addition, with disaggregated CPI data, the paper scrutinizes dynamic patterns of price disparities for consumption expenditure categories classified according to purpose.3 Our research has primarily three goals. First, we investigate whether there exist persistent regional price level disparities, and, if so, assess the extent of deviations from PPP. In addition, their dynamic patterns are also examined. Second, and more importantly, this paper aims to provide a better understanding of main factors that drive substantial price level disparities across cities. Third, as overall price divergence does not necessarily exclude the possibility of club convergence, we explore whether there is a subgroup of cities that share similar aspects in terms of socioeconomic variables and exhibit price level convergence among the member cities.To draw attention to the importance of regional price level dispersion, we first document some salient features of intercity price differentials.4 Some basic descriptive statistics of price differential variability and mean absolute log price differential indicate that there is little evidence of price level convergence. …

A Growth Perspective on Foreign Reserve Accumulation

Based on a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model, this paper aims at understanding the contribution of domestic financial underdevelopment to foreign reserve accumulation in some emerging market economies, especially in China. It is argued that foreign reserve accumulation is part and parcel of a growth strategy based on strong capital investment in a financially constrained economy. It is further proved using a Ramsey problem that purchasing international reserves is a welfare-improving policy in terms of production efficiency gains if it is jointly used with capital controls. In fact, when domestic firms are occasionally credit-constrained and they do not have a direct access to international financial market, they need domestic saving instruments to increase their retained earnings so that they can sufficiently invest in capital. The central bank plays the role of financial intermediary and provides domestic firms with liquid public bonds, thus relaxing domestic financial constraints. The proceeds of domestic public bonds are invested abroad due to the limited scope of domestic financial market and a depressed domestic interest rate, leading to foreign reserve stockpiling. The speed of foreign reserve accumulation would slow down once the economic growth rate decelerates and the domestic financial market develops.

Can exchange rate pass-through explain the price puzzle?

The anomalous behavior of inflation in response to contractionary monetary policy is known as the price puzzle. Using a simple open-economy macroeconomic model, with expectations formed rationally, we show that exchange rate pass-through can help in resolving the price puzzle.

Effects of Imputation Ratio Change on Open Economy in the Integrated Income Tax System

In this paper, we investigate a representative individual who is both a consumer and a producer, and when the personal income tax of can be deducted from the paid corporate tax, how macroeconomic variables (e.g. consumption, output, price index, exchange rate, and terms of trade) are affected by change in imputation ratio with a New Open Economy Macroeconomics (NOEM) model. We found that when the imputation ratio reduces, price index will rise, consumption and output levels will fall, the exchange rate will remain unchanged, and the country size will determine the effect on terms of trade.

Monetary policy, foreign welfare, and international firm mobility

AbstractIn this paper, we develop a new open economy macroeconomics model that incorporates international relocation of firms. A novel feature of our model is that the international distribution of firms responds to exchange rate movements caused by monetary shocks. This implies that our model generates an international transmission effect that operates through the international relocation of firms. We conclude that when the degree of flexibility in relocation between the two countries is sufficiently high, an expansionary monetary policy can be a “beggar‐thy‐neighbor” policy.

What’s news in exchange rate dynamics: A DSGE approach

This paper examines the medium and long-term impacts of economic news on exchange rate movements. We extend a standard new open economy macroeconomics model by allowing anticipated (news) shocks in purchasing power parity and real interest rates, and perform a structural Bayesian estimation. Using 20 years of quarterly data from the US and the euro area, we find that anticipated shocks account for more than 40 percent of exchange rate fluctuations.

THE DEMAND FOR LIQUID ASSETS, CORPORATE SAVING, AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS

The recent period of capital outflows from emerging economies has coincided with an increase in their corporate saving. In this paper, we model corporate saving as a demand for liquid assets by credit-constrained firms in a dynamic open-economy macroeconomic model. We find that the implications of this model are very different from standard models, because the demand for foreign bonds is a complement to domestic investment rather than a substitute. We show that this complementarity is at work when an emerging economy is on its convergence path or when it has a higher TFP growth rate. This framework is consistent with a number of stylized facts found in high-growth, high-investment emerging economies.

What's News in Exchange Rate Dynamics: A DSGE Approach

This paper examines the medium and long-term impacts of economic news on exchange rate movements. We extend a standard new open economy macroeconomics model by allowing anticipated (news) shocks in purchasing power parity and real interest rates, and perform a structural Bayesian estimation. Using 20 years of quarterly data from the US and the euro area, we find that anticipated shocks account for more than 40 percent of exchange rate fluctuations.

Convex Phillips Curve Explaining Openness and Inflation Nexus

We study the theoretical nexus between inflation and trade openness in the presence of a non-linear Phillips curve. Phillips curve explains the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation; however, the open economy macroeconomic models usually propose that the slope of the trade-off should be related to the extent of trade openness. The role of openness as a check on inflation has recently attracted attention of many [1]. The parallelism between the recent globalization wave and the fall in inflation has led to a perception that the determinants of the slowdown in inflation were not only the domestic ones but could partly be due to increased trade openness. This study describes this relationship considering a non-linear Phillips curve. Using the conventional Phillips curve approximated by Cobb-Douglas model we confirm the earlier observations regarding the existence of a significant impact of openness on inflation. The interesting contribution of this study is not only to establish the trade-openness and inflation nexus but also to identify the relevant channels through which openness impacts inflation. Our model predicts that in the current scenario of increased openness a non-linear symmetric loss function may still prevail, but for the policy purposes it necessitates to consider domestic and foreign propensities to import and the exchange rate sensitivity to inflation. In addition, the integration of the international markets would result into an even more important role of exchange rate dynamics as a response to the rising international trade. We find that in the presence of a convex Phillips curve any upward variation in the foreigners’ propensity to import would place a downward pressure on domestic inflation, provided that the current and the lagged rate of unemployment are less than minimum unemployment rate. Our model, while assessing the short run dynamics, also suggests that increased openness results into a complex divide among different economies, due to their sizes and structures. Investigating such a relationship as an extension of this study for different economic groups could reveal further interesting facts.